Trading for Kevin Kolb

I have been thinking about doing a write up on the idea of trading for Kevin Kolb. It's something that Kevin Calabro and many others have been talking about for weeks and the rumors are certainly circulating that the Hawks may be suiters for the 26 year old QB. I am not really sure how I feel about it to be honest with you. I did a short write up on it a few months ago, and stated then that overall I'm not a huge fan of the idea. In doing my research just now though, I did come across a ridiculously thorough look at Kevin Kolb, complete with in-depth analysis (and video of every pass he attempted) of every game he has started, courtesy of the SBNation Blog for the Eagles, Bleedinggreennation.com. If you're a Hawks fan and you've got about an hour to kill, read the article and watch the tape.

I came out of it feeling better about the prospect of this trade, which at this point seems more likely than a trade for Carson Palmer. If you read this blog then you probably know my thoughts on Carson Palmer - and if you don't then I'll just tell you - I really like him, and believe that the Hawks should consider a trade for him. I've had the opportunity to watch about six or seven Bengals games from this year and I just come out more and more convinced that he's still got it.

That being said, after reading this article, I am more inclined to believe the hype that maybe Kevin Kolb is a better option, considering his age and upside. It's true that in his seven starts he's been inconsistent.  But honestly, it's only seven starts - it's exceedingly rare for an NFL quarterback to have success in their first handful of games - and even more rare for a QB to have the success that Kolb has had in some of them. If you look at any number of now-great QBs first handful of starts you will see great inconsistency. It simply takes some time for a NFL QB to settle in.

I'll quote a good summary from the article but you should read it in its entirety if you get the chance because the Hawks potential future is in those 6,500 words.
Summary - Kevin Kolb has had 7 career NFL starts. He was absolutely fantastic in two of them (Chiefs, Falcons), as he took home NFL Offensive Player of the Week honors in both games. Let's not minimize that accomplishment. In fact, let's take a look at the math on that one. There are 32 NFL teams. There are 53 players on every NFL roster. Let's say for the sake of argument that 25 of those players on every 53-man roster play on the offensive side of the ball. 25 offensive players * 32 teams = 800 offensive players in the NFL. Kevin Kolb was voted the best player among those 800 offensive players in the league... twice... in his first five career starts, both wins of course. That is nothing to sneeze at.
He was very good in two other starts (Saints, 49ers), one a loss, one a win.
He was average in one relief appearance (Redskins), and bad in one relief appearance in an impossible situation (Ravens), both losses.
He was bad in three starts (Packers, Titans, and Cowboys), 2 of those being "real losses," one sort of a "no decision" in what was essentially an exhibition game with the Eagles' JV team playing the Cowboys' varsity team.
Those 4 good-to-great starts, quite simply, are enough to intrigue other teams around the league. Being a great NFL QB takes time. A few outliers aside, it's extraordinarily rare to see QBs have immediate success at this level, and most of the greats experienced similar starts to Kolb's - some bad outings, with a few unmistakable flashes of great QB play mixed in. It remains to be seen if Kolb can become more consistent if given the opportunity to be a franchise QB, although I believe he will.
The article goes on to list the potential cost of a trade for Kolb for other teams and which teams may be in the market. Interestingly enough he lists the Seahawks at the 11th most likely - a number that I would think is pretty low. I have to think if the CBA ever gets worked out, the Hawks will be on a short list of potential trade partners. We'll see.

Overall though, a very convincing and illuminating article about a guy we could potentially be cheering for for the next 5 years.

1 comment:

  1. I read the article a while ago and the one thing that stood out to me was that the writer was unrealistic in what he expected back for Kolb. He attempts to justify his expectations early in the article but references far too many draft day trades for quarterbacks in the specific draft class. I think Kolb might have commanded a first rounder last year, but I think his stock is down after his 2010 year where he was injured and not as effective as he showed the year prior.